Saturday, August 13, 2005

Mercantilism in the General Theory

The history of economic thought during the late 18th century is a story of the unqualified repudiation of mercantilism. Mercantilism was a system of thought in economics that identified increases in national wealth with a positive balance of trade. Policies which led to balance of trade surpluses were to be vigorously pursued. Such policies would lead to a steady accumulation of gold specie which was identified with national wealth, output growth, and prosperity.

Today, the same faulty mercantilist sentiments are often expressed by individuals and the media when they speak in glowing terms about the large amounts of foreign exchange of a particular country. For example, one often hears people (who should know better)in Taiwan speak with great pride and sense of accomplishment that Taiwan has the third largest amount of foreign exchange reserves in the world. They express this view despite the fact that Taiwan is not anywhere near the third wealthiest country in the world. They express this view despite the fact that Taiwan's economic growth has recently fallen to historical lows. These mercantilist notions play well to audiences determined to see greater protectionism and nationalism. Stocks of gold have come to be replaced by foreign exchange reserves and special drawing rights at the IMF. Nevertheless, it remains mercantilism all the same.

Despite the manifest failure of mercantilism to withstand the criticisms of 18th and 19th century Classical economists, Keynes found space in his General Theory to defend in part mercantilist policy prescriptions. His purpose in doing this was to show that early mercantilist writers had an intuitive feel for the value of maintaining low interest rates, finding an outlet for the over-production of goods, and increasing the money supply(gold). These three goals conform exactly with Keynesian theory as expounded in the General Theory.

Keynes presents these highly controversial views in Chapter 23 of the General Theory. Oddly enough, they are rarely discussed in macroeconomics classes nowadays. Lacking central banks, these early economies required stable policies which would ensure increasing money supplies to accompany economic growth. Trade surpluses and concomitant gold inflows were essentially the only way to do this.

Once again we have an example of Keynes' unconventional thinking backed by an enormous, very persuasive, and complete theoretical superstructure. No wonder Keynes' General Theory represented a revolutionary change in economics and set in motion an entirely new direction of research. No wonder that we stand in awe of someone who could martial so many different strands of evidence to support his views. Rarely do we see this kind of rhetoric today. It is indeed a tragedy that many economists today have completely lost their ability to argue their points forcefully. They content themselves with the delusion that talking to each other in ceremonial scientific trappings can make up for the obvious erosion in their ever-dwindling audience.


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