Sunday, October 23, 2005

The Myth of Keynes and Sticky Wages

Most students studying Keynes will immediately assert with great confidence that the whole of the General Theory rests on Keynes' assumption of fixed nominal wages. This is the standard exposition in most macroeconomics texts and even pervades the thinking of most graduate schools. Asked why there is stubborn and intractably high unemployment in the economy, the standard answer is precisely the opposite of what Keynes wrote in the GT. The standard answer is that prices and wages are sticky downward. If wages and prices were more flexible, then there would be less of a problem of unemployment during recessions and the social cost would certainly be less. This is in fact the basis of New Keynesian thinking (as well as Neoclassical thinking) and it has become the mind set of our current generation of economists. All of this is now taken for granted despite the fact that Keynes was adamant in saying that flexibility of wages was not central to his assertion that high unemployment could exist over a period of years with no clear self-correcting mechanism to adjust the economy in the short run.

There are many economists who have staked their professional reputations on the notion of sticky wages. Thousands of pages of theoretical work have been written showing a myriad of reasons why that prices and wages do not move instantaneously to clear markets; despite the fact that it is in the best interests of both suppliers and demanders to have efficient markets.

Keynes was more savvy than this. The General Theory has at least two places where Keynes explicitly assumes flexible nominal wages. He uses flexibility of wages to show that a fall in wages may NOT lead to greater output and employment, if investment demand simultaneously drops. In the standard IS-LM and AS-AD model of modern macroeconomics what Keynes meant was that a fall in wages would no doubt lead to increased AS, but that the AD curve might fall if entrepeneurs felt that wages would continue to fall in the future. In such a case, firms would hestitate to invest now and decide instead to wait to invest when labor costs were at their rock bottom. An increasing AS and a decreasing AD might leave the economy no better off, with only a lower aggregate price and wage level.

In technical terms, the expected secular decline in wages and prices secularly lowers the expected nominal value of future profits. While the current price of capital has only partly fallen. This reduces the MEI and without the nominal interest rate falling equally as much, there is no incentive to invest. This is why that Keynes asserts that an expected secular decline in nominal wages will adversely affect investment. Thus, even with flexible wages, a fall in the nominal wage may lead to a concomitant fall in investment and therefore to no increase in output.

But, don't take it from me. Read the passages in the General Theory dealing with this subject and judge for yourself whether Keynes is justified in saying that the issue of flexible wages is beside the point. Section III of Chapter 11 deals with this subject and Section II part(4) of Chapter 19 talks about it at length. All it takes is a clear understanding of Keynes theory of the investment function, which has been a standard part of macroeconomics for over 60 years.

Remember this the next time someone tries to tell you that Keynesian economics just assumes fixed money wages.

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I agree with the literary analysis that is presented above.However,Keynes also provided a technical analysis.This technical analysis is presented in the form of elasticities in chapters 20 and 21 of the GT.The major result is that w/p=mpl/(mpi+mpc),where mpl is the marginal product of labor,w is the money wage,p is the price level,mpc is the marginal propensity to consume,and mpi is the marginal propensity to invest.Unless mpc+mpi=1,it is impossible for labor to cut its money wage,as a whole,in order to reduce the unemployment rate.Keynes expresses this on pp.261-262 of the GT as the condition that mpc=1 must hold if the capital stock is optimal.If the capital stock is non optimal,then mpc+mpi=1 is required.If mpc+mpi<1,some degree of involuntary unemployment will occur macroscopically.

 
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